After a two-and-a-half-year hiatus, crude oil exports from Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan officially recommenced on September 27, 2025.
This pivotal development, driven by an interim agreement between the Iraqi federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and various international oil companies, is set to immediately bolster global oil supply and exert downward pressure on international crude prices.
The resumption marks a significant shift in energy geopolitics and commodity markets, offering a fresh supply stream to a global economy constantly seeking stability amidst fluctuating energy dynamics.
The halt in exports, which commenced in March 2023, originated from a ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). The ruling mandated Turkey to compensate Iraq $1.5 billion for unauthorised oil exports facilitated by the KRG between 2014 and 2018.
This legal imbroglio compounded long-standing disputes between Baghdad and Erbil concerning the sovereign control and equitable revenue sharing of Kurdish oil resources, ultimately leading to the prolonged disruption.
Brent hit its lowest since early June on Thursday as oversupply concerns rattled the market, as focus now shifts to OPEC+ who could agree to raise oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, triple the increase made for October, as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim market share, three sources familiar with the talks said.
Jorge Montepeque, managing director at Onyx Capital Group, said some banks, such as Macquarie, have put out predictions of a super glut in oil markets, which have weighed on sentiment.
However oil prices could find some support following news that the U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, two officials told Reuters on Wednesday, confirming an earlier Wall Street Journal report.
This will make it easier for Ukraine to hit refineries, pipelines and other infrastructure with the aim of depriving the Kremlin of revenue and oil, the WSJ said. "There is some concern in the market again that Russian oil could get disrupted," said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS. But if there are no disruptions, the impact on prices will likely be minor, he said.
Fuel card prices will fall by .60 pence per litre for next week.
